PredictIt definition: what PredictIt is, explained
PredictIt is a US-centric political prediction market where users buy shares that pay $1 if a stated event resolves YES. It operates under special regulatory allowances, targets retail traders, and uses a centralized platform model distinct from blockchain markets. If you searched for “PredictIt definition” you’re probably comparing platforms: this piece explains PredictIt briefly and contrasts it with Polymarket and PolyArb’s arbitrage product.
What PredictIt actually is
PredictIt runs political markets where each contract represents an event (e.g., an election outcome). Traders buy and sell contracts that settle to $1 for YES outcomes and $0 for NO outcomes. The platform is centralized and subject to US regulatory frameworks, which affects market scope, participant eligibility, and reporting rules.
Markets on PredictIt are often limited by per-person caps and market-creation rules set to satisfy regulators. That changes liquidity profiles compared with open, permissionless markets on blockchains like Polygon where Polymarket operates.
How PredictIt differs from Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized, blockchain-native CLOB using pUSD on Polygon and on-chain outcome tokens via the Gnosis CTF. Polymarket markets are global (subject to geo restrictions) and settlement flows through smart contracts and the UMA oracle, whereas PredictIt is centralized with its own custody and settlement model.
The practical differences matter for traders: order execution speed, fees, dispute/resolution processes, and available instruments vary. Arbitrage strategies that work on Polymarket (intra-market binary or combinatorial) rely on the CLOB mechanics and on-chain tokens that PredictIt doesn’t use.
Where PolyArb fits in
PolyArb is a Polymarket-focused arbitrage bot service built for low-latency traders. For $99/month you get a non-custodial bot with 40ms latency versus ~800ms for free bots, Telegram and Discord alerts, and a stated $7.62 minimum guaranteed edge per trade. The service automates intra-Polymarket arbitrage opportunities like buying complementary legs when their best-ask sum is under $1.00.
Remember: arbitrage spreads are mathematical in principle, but trades carry risks — resolution disputes, partial fills, fee changes, and settlement timing — so historical performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Start capturing Polymarket arbitrage
Try PolyArb today — $99/month for a 40ms bot, live alerts, and a $7.62 minimum guaranteed edge per trade. Non-custodial and live today.
FAQ
- Is PredictIt legal?
- PredictIt operates under a specific regulatory allowance in the US and implements market rules and participant caps to comply. Availability and legality can vary by jurisdiction; consult official resources for current status.
- Can I arbitrage between PredictIt and Polymarket?
- Cross-platform arbitrage is possible in theory but out of scope for PolyArb. PolyArb focuses on intra-Polymarket arbitrage using on-chain order books and CTF tokens.
- Do I need cryptocurrency to use Polymarket or PolyArb?
- Polymarket trades use pUSD (wrapped USDC) on Polygon; gas is sponsored by Polymarket’s Relayer. PolyArb is non-custodial but operates with Polymarket’s on-chain instruments and requires a wallet connection for trading.