Risk disclosure
Last updated 2026-06-02
Even mathematical arbitrage carries real risk. Read these before sizing real capital.
Resolution risk
A market may resolve in a way that disagrees with your interpretation of the rules. Polymarket disputes are resolved through UMA's optimistic oracle, which can take time and occasionally produce contested outcomes.
Settlement timing
Capital is locked from execution until resolution. The annualised return on a 2% spread is small if the market takes 90 days to resolve.
Slippage and partial fills
Order book depth changes between scan and fire. A 'risk-free' edge can disappear or partially fill against you. The bot's FAK logic mitigates but does not eliminate this.
Fees
Polymarket charges variable taker fees by category, currently 0%-1.8%. Always include the live fee in EV calculations.
Smart-contract risk
Polymarket's CTF and the Polygon network are battle-tested but not invulnerable.
Regulatory risk
Polymarket is restricted in many jurisdictions and the regulatory landscape changes. Trading from a restricted region violates Polymarket's terms and may have legal consequences for you.