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Kalshi Super Bowl: How it compares to Polymarket and arbitrage

If you searched "kalshi super bowl" you’re likely comparing how Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets work versus prediction markets like Polymarket. Kalshi is a regulated exchange that lists event contracts such as Super Bowl props. Polymarket is a decentralized CLOB-based prediction market on Polygon with different mechanics and liquidity behavior. PolyArb is a bot that hunts intra-Polymarket arbitrage opportunities; it runs at 40ms latency, is non-custodial, and advertises a $7.62 minimum guaranteed edge per trade.

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What Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets are

Kalshi offers event contracts—often single-question, exchange-traded wagers—under a regulated model. Super Bowl markets on Kalshi typically take the form of binary or categorical contracts settled against specific game outcomes or props. Kalshi’s product design, regulation, and market structure can differ from decentralized venues. Liquidity, fees, and access rules are set by Kalshi’s exchange model rather than on-chain mechanics.

How Polymarket differs in mechanics

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market running on Polygon using the CTF for outcome tokens and a Central Limit Order Book for matching. Each outcome is an ERC-1155 token and fair prices sum to $1.00 across outcomes in a market. Polymarket uses UMA for resolution and the Relayer to sponsor gas. That changes how orders execute, how settlement happens, and where short-lived intra-market pricing inefficiencies appear.

Arbitrage opportunities between platforms and within Polymarket

Cross-platform spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket can exist, but PolyArb focuses on intra-Polymarket arbitrage: buying complementary outcomes inside the same market when their best-ask sum is less than $1.00. That creates an edge defined as $1.00 minus the sum of asks. PolyArb advertises a $7.62 minimum guaranteed edge per trade and low latency (40ms) to capture fleeting spreads that free bots (≈800ms) may miss. Remember that any spread-based trade carries risks: slippage, partial fills, UMA resolution disputes, fees, and settlement timing.

Which platform to use for Super Bowl trading

If you prefer regulated, centralized order books and trades tied to a centralized exchange, Kalshi may fit your needs. If you prefer on-chain outcome tokens, programmable settlement, and a CLOB with gasless trading, Polymarket is the alternative. For traders specifically seeking intra-market arbitrage on Polymarket, PolyArb is designed to automate detection and execution with low latency and Telegram/Discord alerts. Evaluate market liquidity, geo restrictions, and your tolerance for the specific risks described above.

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FAQ

Is Kalshi’s Super Bowl market the same as a Polymarket Super Bowl market?
No. Kalshi is a regulated, centralized exchange offering event contracts. Polymarket runs on Polygon with ERC-1155 outcome tokens and a CLOB. Settlement, fees, and mechanics differ between the two.
Can PolyArb trade Kalshi Super Bowl markets?
PolyArb focuses on intra-Polymarket arbitrage and operates on Polymarket markets. It does not route orders to Kalshi; cross-platform arbitrage is outside PolyArb’s primary scope.
What risks should I know before arbitraging Super Bowl markets?
Common risks include slippage and partial fills, fee changes, UMA resolution and dispute delays on Polymarket, settlement timing, and smart-contract risk. Always consider these alongside any advertised edge.

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