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Kalshi odds: how they compare to Polymarket pricing

If you searched for "kalshi odds" you’re probably comparing how event pricing looks on Kalshi versus Polymarket. Kalshi publishes exchange-style prices for regulated US contracts; those prices are set by order flow on Kalshi’s centralized matching engine. Polymarket’s prices are on-chain, denominated in pUSD, and settle through UMA and Gnosis CTF. For arbitrage traders, PolyArb targets inefficiencies inside Polymarket’s order books rather than cross-platform mismatches.

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What "Kalshi odds" means in practice

On Kalshi, odds are the market’s implied probability for an outcome priced on a centralized exchange under US regulation. Kalshi’s product and rule set—like settlement, tick sizes, and participant eligibility—reflect that regulatory environment. These are not on-chain tokens and don’t use pUSD or CTF mechanics. Traders use Kalshi odds to express macro or event views in a CFTC-regulated venue. That differs materially from Polymarket, which is a decentralized CLOB on Polygon where outcome shares are ERC-1155 tokens and resolution uses UMA.

Why Polymarket pricing can diverge

Polymarket prices are influenced by on-chain liquidity, tick-size rules that tighten near extremes, and the unique fees and gasless relayer model. Those mechanics mean best-ask sums across outcomes sometimes fall below $1.00, creating intra-market arbitrage opportunities you can execute by buying a complete set and splitting/merging via the CTF. Polymarket’s markets also display short-lived spreads that arburs exploited historically; between April 2024 and April 2025, arbitrageurs extracted roughly $40M from such inefficiencies.

Where PolyArb fits in

PolyArb is built to find and execute intra-Polymarket arbitrage opportunities: $99/month, non-custodial, live today, with 40ms latency versus ~800ms for free bots, Telegram and Discord alerts, and a $7.62 minimum guaranteed edge per trade. It looks for cases where the sum of best asks is below $1.00 and routes orders through the CLOB with split/merge automation. Always remember these trades carry risks: resolution disputes via UMA, partial fills and slippage, fee changes, settlement delays, and smart-contract risk. PolyArb automates execution but does not eliminate these risks.

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FAQ

Are Kalshi odds the same as Polymarket prices?
No. Kalshi odds are centralized-exchange prices in a CFTC-regulated venue. Polymarket prices are on-chain, use pUSD and CTF tokens, and resolve via UMA; the mechanics and participant sets differ.
Can I arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Cross-platform arbitrage is possible in principle but falls outside PolyArb’s core intra-market focus. Cross-platform trades involve settlement timing, asset bridges, and counterparty and regulatory differences that add risk.
Does PolyArb need custody of my funds to trade?
No. PolyArb is non-custodial. It automates order placement through your wallet and the Polymarket Relayer while you retain control of pUSD and outcome tokens.

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