Polymarket market analysis
Will Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?
Summary
Primary elections are scheduled to take place in South Dakota on June 2, 2026. If no candidate receives over 35% of the vote in the first round of the gubernatorial primary, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to the pair of candidates that advance to the runoff of the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary election. If a pairing that is not directly listed in this market advances to the runoff, if a candidate wins the nomination in the first round of the primary election, or if no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". If a candidate qualifies for the runoff, that candidate will count for resolution regardless of whether they later withdraw or otherwise do not participate in the runoff. The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Spread analysis
No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).
Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.
Outcomes
| Outcome | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 26.0% |
| No | 74.0% |
Price history
Last 7 days
Frequently asked questions
- What is this market about?
- Will Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election? The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
- How does intra-market arbitrage work here?
- If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
- What are the fees?
- Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.