Polymarket market analysis
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
Summary
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Abelardo de la Espriella wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Abelardo de la Espriella, not any coalition of which he may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Spread analysis
No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).
Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.
Outcomes
| Outcome | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0.6% |
| No | 99.5% |
Price history
Last 7 days
Frequently asked questions
- What is this market about?
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? The market resolves on May 31, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
- How does intra-market arbitrage work here?
- If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
- What are the fees?
- Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.