Polymarket market analysis
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?
Summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilia Topuria defeats Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Spread analysis
No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).
Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.
Outcomes
| Outcome | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% |
Price history
Last 7 days
Frequently asked questions
- What is this market about?
- Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? The market resolves on Jun 15, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
- How does intra-market arbitrage work here?
- If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
- What are the fees?
- Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.