Polymarket market analysis
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Spread analysis
No intra-market edge right now (sum of best asks is at or above $1.00).
Polymarket taker fees vary by category between 0% and 1.8%. Always confirm before sizing.
Outcomes
| Outcome | Best ask |
|---|---|
| Yes | 87.5% |
| No | 12.5% |
Price history
Last 7 days
Frequently asked questions
- What is this market about?
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? The market resolves on Jun 25, 2026 based on the rules described on Polymarket.
- How does intra-market arbitrage work here?
- If the best-ask prices for every outcome sum to less than $1.00, you can buy each outcome and be guaranteed a $1.00 payout regardless of which one resolves YES.
- What are the fees?
- Polymarket taker fees on this category are typically between 0% and 1.8%. Confirm the live fee on Polymarket before placing orders.